2025-02-24 易发睇楼团
In an unprecedented scenario since the SARS crisis of 2005, Hong Kong’s major housing estates have not witnessed any transactions during the recent four-day holiday. This event marks the first time in nearly two decades that the real estate market has experienced such inactivity, coinciding with the Chinese New Year celebrations and the upcoming announcement of the SAR budget.
Centaline Property reported a stark reduction in activity at their 10 blue-chip estates, with no transactions over the previous weekend—an alarming dip from the four transactions the weekend before and the lowest since September 2018. The agency's Asia-Pacific vice chairman of residential, Louis Chan Wing-kit, noted the holiday period as a key factor, with potential buyers and sellers opting to celebrate or travel instead of engaging in property deals.
The air of anticipation has thickened as individuals adopt a cautious stance with the budget announcement approaching on February 28. Market observers are eagerly awaiting potential changes to the "spicy home measures," the governmental controls established to temper the overheated property market, which are anticipated to be removed.
Midland Realty echoed this sentiment with their report of zero transactions, an unusual occurrence not just in their tracked 10 major housing estates, but also within the top 15 target areas—a first since the company started keeping records in 2010. Hong Kong Property Services also observed no deals in the same period, with chief executive Dave Ma Tai-yeung highlighting the possibility of continued market sluggishness in light of upcoming new projects.
Developers like Vanke Hong Kong are poised to introduce significant housing opportunities, including two projects totaling over 2,000 units this year, with 500 units in Bondlane, Cheung Sha Wan. Henderson Land and K Wah International are also gearing up to launch new residential projects, adding further options to the property market.
In economic news, the US consumer price index rose by 3.1 percent over the past year, surpassing the forecasted 2.9 percent. This reinforces the Federal Reserve’s stance on maintaining elevated interest rates. Notable increases were seen in shelter, motor vehicle insurance, and medical care, while some sectors like used vehicles and apparel saw decreases. Energy costs dipped, but the service sector and food prices remained robust, with shelter accounting for the majority of the overall monthly increase.
These economic indicators have led to a surge in US Treasury two-year yields to 4.63 percent, a drop in S&P 500 futures by over 1 percent, and an appreciation of the dollar. Interest rate strategists, such as Ira Jersey from Bloomberg Intelligence, suggest the market may only expect a 50 percent chance of an interest rate cut in May, given the inflation report's implications.
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